Job losses during COVID-19 have varied greatly by metro area. An analysis by Yardi Matrix found that high-cost gateway metros and metros with large tourism concentrations have fared the worst, while growing Sun Belt and Midwest markets lost the fewest jobs.
However, the numbers provide hope for struggling markets to recover post-pandemic.
Some highlights from the Yardi Matrix report:
- Through September, 7.0 percent of jobs were lost nationally, but by metro the number ranged from a high of 12.6 percent job loss in Las Vegas to just 2.6 percent job lossin Salt Lake City. The gateway metros of New York, San Francisco, Boston, and Los Angeles were all among the top 10 in percentage of jobs lost.
- By job segment, leisure and hospitality was by far the biggest loser, with 3.8 million jobs lost, or 22.8 percent of the jobs that existed in February. Meanwhile, only 1.8 percent of the jobs in financial services have been lost since the start of the pandemic.
- Metros with the best job performance include those with relatively small leisure and hospitality industries and those that have lost relatively few jobs in the segment (Indianapolis lost only 6.5 percent, for example). And some cities have done well in other job segments. Austin, for example, has added 8,200 professional and business services jobs and 7,300 financial services jobs since February.
- None of this is to make a judgment about what represents the best public-health policy, or what the impact on jobs will be if the pandemic worsens over the winter. From a job-performance point of view, however, metros that encountered the coronavirus early on have paid a price.
- “The data does show hope for the future for the gateway metros that have been hard hit, because the core industries in those metros, such as finance and professional services, remain viable. Once a vaccine is available and people feel safe going back to entertainment venues, restaurants and the like, gateway cities will have the ability to rebound,” the report says.
Sun Belt, Midwest Metros Least Affected
“Metros that have held up relatively well during COVID-19 include secondary markets that are attracting businesses and households moving from high-cost coastal areas, those that have not implemented strict shutdowns, and those that have a relatively small tourism component, especially conference and luxury travel,” the Yardi report says.
“Of the top 10 metros with the fewest job losses through September, only Austin (-25.6 percent) and Dallas (-23.2 percent) had job losses in hospitality above the national average, and most were well below.”
Wildcards: Virus, Government Support
“The final impact of COVID-19 has yet to be written. Far from over, almost eight months into the pandemic the number of new cases has grown to new highs, even if the number of deaths produced per case is shrinking. Going forward, the job picture depends to a large degree on the course of the virus, whether another set of shutdowns is implemented and whether and when a vaccine becomes readily available to the public. If effective vaccines become available in the spring or summer, as has been reported, a substantial recovery in economic activity and employment could happen in 2021,” Yardi Matrix writes in the report.
About Yardi Matrix:
Yardi Matrix researches and reports on Multifamily, Office and Self Storage properties across the United States, serving the needs of a variety of industry professionals.Yardi Matrix Multifamily provides accurate data on 18+ million units, covering over 90% of the U.S. population. Contact them at (480) 663-1149.