A declining but still sizable under-construction pipeline is leading to more new completions, up 2%, in the full-year 2025 and 2026 forecasts, Yardi Matrix says in a special bulletin.
“New multifamily construction starts through mid-year 2025 are at a similar pace to the same period a year ago. As a result, the Q3 forecast update has increased 2027 completions by nearly 3.0% to 360,000 units,” the report says.
Ben Bruckner, senior research analyst writes, “the increase was driven by a slightly larger-than-anticipated under-construction pipeline at mid-year 2025.
“On a year-over-year basis, the under-construction pipeline has declined by 16.4% to 1.027 million units. Despite the decline, this level easily supports a modest increase in forecast completions to nearly 550,000 units for 2025 and 430,000 units in 2026.”
Forecast Coverage
The supply forecast covers market rate, senior housing, multifamily property types, as well as single-family rental units.
Since most under-construction and planned properties have identified property types, the first three years of the forecast can be broken out by sector.
Long-Term Forecast: 2027 Through 2030
The Yardi Matrix report says the administration’s tariff policies will not be sufficient to push the economy into recession.
“The longer-term forecast assumes continued steady but unspectacular economic and employment growth, continued deceleration in service-related inflation, and a transitory increase in goods-related inflation. This leaves room for the Federal Reserve to lower short-term rates by 50 basis points in late 2025, with additional moderate easing to follow in 2026,” Bruckner writes.
“Lower interest rates and continued modest economic growth provide a tailwind for new multifamily development in 2026. As a result, the forecast continues to model construction starts bottoming in 2025 and rebounding in 2026, with further growth in new development activity in subsequent years. The end result is new supply increasing to 410,000 units in 2028 and gradually increasing to more than 450,000 units by 2030.”
Read the full report here.
About Yardi Matrix
Yardi Matrix researches and reports on multifamily, office and self-storage properties across the United States, serving the needs of a variety of industry professionals. Yardi Matrix Multifamily provides accurate data on 18+ million units, covering more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. Contact the company at (480) 663-1149.
About Yardi Matrix
Yardi Matrix researches and reports on multifamily, office and self-storage properties across the United States, serving the needs of a variety of industry professionals. Yardi Matrix Multifamily provides accurate data on 18+ million units, covering more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. Contact the company at (480) 663-1149.
